Follow the M2 - Bullish BTC Ahead

To the moon, baby!

Source: X profile, @CryptoHodlKing

The M2 money supply’s been climbing fast lately, and if you’ve been paying attention, you’ve seen the numbers. It’s sitting at around $21.5 trillion as of last week, up 7% from last year, according to the latest Fed data I pulled off some financial site I can’t pronounce. That’s a flood of cash sloshing around, and history tells us BTC loves that kind of liquidity. Is this related to the Japanese bond market issues?

I really have no idea. What I do know, is that back in 2020, when M2 jumped after COVID lockdowns, Bitcoin went from $10,000 to $60,000 in a year. Now, with inflation still nagging at 3.5% and the Fed hinting at more action, this money supply surge feels like déjà vu.

People are scared of dollar devaluation, and BTC’s looking like the hedge against inflation that it’s always promised to be.

So, what’s this 10-week delay all about?

Profiles on X have been tossing around this idea that Bitcoin lags behind M2 movements by about 10 weeks — roughly 70 days — before it really takes off. I’ve only noticed this once, and haven’t done much digging into the history and correlation until recently.

I dug into some old threads and found a guy, @CryptoHodlKing, who’s been charting this for years. He pointed to 2016, when M2 spiked in July and BTC didn’t hit its stride until late September, jumping from $600 to $1,000. Same pattern in 2020 — M2 shot up in April, and BTC followed in June. Right now, M2’s been climbing since mid-March, so if this holds, we’re looking at mid-June for the real action. I’m no genius with charts, but I’ve seen enough cycles to know this delay could mean BTC’s just coiling up for a spring. My palms are sweaty thinking about it.

I thought I had missed out on the chance to 2x flip again this year — BTC tickled just below $76k and never hit my buy order at $75k.

I just bought in again, at $107k. My hopes are that — if the M2 signal aligns again, Bitcoin might see $200k by the end of the year. I am being somewhat conservative and set a Trailing Sell bot to trigger at $180k.

Bitcoin’s been hovering around $100,000 lately, which is quite a bit up after hitting $76,000 very recently. But with M2 pumping, that ceiling could shatter. The logic’s simple: more dollars in the system mean more people looking for alternatives, and BTC’s the shiny gold standard of crypto.

I’ve got a friend, Sarah, who works in banking — she was half-joking about buying BTC because her savings are losing value and she’s depressed about it. I told her …. while there is never a guarantee, the dollar is loosing value, and Bitcoin isn’t, and this is…. just an observation. Haha!

That’s the vibe out there. Institutional money’s piling in too — BlackRock’s ETF pulled in $300 million last week alone. I remember when I scoffed at ETFs in 2019, thinking they’d never touch crypto. Guess who’s eating crow now?

The M2 trend’s not some random spike; it’s a steady climb, and BTC’s history backs this lag theory. If mid-June hits and we see $110,000 again, then $115,000, I wouldn’t be shocked. X is full of optimists — @BitcoinBull99 predicted $100,000 by July, and they were right, and we have landed there a little ahead of their prediction.

What’s driving this M2 surge?

The Fed’s been quiet, but whispers on X suggest they’re prepping for another round of quantitative easing. Inflation’s sticky, wages aren’t keeping up, and the government’s deficit’s ballooning — $2 trillion this year, they say. That’s a lot of printed money, and it’s got to go somewhere.

The Japanese bond market is also demanding higher percentage rates and looking to stabilize it’s debt. That might mean major liquidations.

Historically, BTC soaks up that excess when people lose faith in fiat and other vehicles. This time, I’m holding tighter, watching the M2 curve like a hawk. The lag gives us time to plan.

The bullish case gets stronger when you look at on-chain data. Transaction volume’s up 15% this month, and wallet activity’s spiking — new addresses are popping up daily. That’s retail jumping in, and it’s a sign BTC’s waking up. I checked Glassnode last night, and saw long-term holders aren’t selling — over 70% of BTC hasn’t moved in six months. That’s a wall of support. Plus, miners are holding steady despite the last halving’s pressure. I’ve been mining since 2017, small scale, and I know the grind — those guys aren’t dumping, which means confidence. If M2 keeps climbing, our current $100,000 floor could turn into a launchpad.

Note: The 10-week lag isn’t guaranteed — markets can be messy when we have political leadership tossing grenades into the economic landscape.

Retail’s waking up too. Google Trends shows “buy Bitcoin” spiking, and X is a firehose of FOMO. I saw a post from @HodlQueen with a chart overlaying M2 and BTC — pretty convincing. Newbies are jumping in, and that’s fuel for a pump.

I got into crypto to escape the 9-to-5 grind, and seeing this energy reminds me why.

Institutions aren’t sleeping either. MicroStrategy’s added another $200 million, and Tesla’s rumored to be back in. I scoffed at corporate adoption years ago, but now it’s a game-changer. The M2 flood gives them cover to buy — devaluing dollars mean BTC’s a hedge. I’ve got a small stack from 2020, held through dips, and this could be the payoff. The lag’s a mental test, but I’m sticking it out.

Risks linger, though. A Fed rate hike could spook markets — last time, in 2022, BTC dropped to $16,000, and I lost sleep over it. Or a regulatory crackdown — SEC’s been eyeing ETFs. I read a blog last night about a proposed tax on crypto gains, and it gave me chills. But M2’s momentum feels stronger than those headwinds. I’ve survived crashes before, sold at the bottom once, and vowed never again. This time, I’m riding it.
The community’s hyped. X is full of “to the moon” posts, and Telegram groups are buzzing with M2 charts. I joined a BTC chat last week, and the optimism’s infectious. One guy shared a story about turning $500 into $5,000 in 2021 — motivating, but I know luck’s a factor.

The 10-week lag’s a strategy now — stack now, cash out later.

What do you think?
Bullish or cautious?

Thank you for reading!

Until next time….

Onward and Upward Everybody!

-Chris