BTC Halving in April 2024! Here is How I Intend to 2x My Money.
A peek into my plans….
A peek into my plans….
DISCLAIMER: What follows is NOT financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I am just a regular person sees a path, and intends to take that path, and I’m smiling about it. Follow me at your own risk.
What is BTC “halving”?
BTC Halving refers to a point in time where Bitcoin mining rewards are reduced by 50%.
Mining is how new Bitcoins are minted, digitally.
Less minting = less BTC in circulation.
Less BTC in circulation + active market pump = value 2x / 3x, easy.
Every 4 years or so, the amount of Bitcoin put into circulation is reduced, increasing Bitcoins value rather predictably.
Take a look at the price history of Bitcoin.
Let’s start back in 2012.
It might be hard to see on that first chart above, but there is actually MASSIVE price movement within that tiny almost straight line around 2012.
Let’s zoom in!
1st Bitcoin halving date — November 28, 2012
After the halving in November 2012, there was a sharp increase in the value of the coin.
You can’t see that if you are zoomed-out, looking at today’s value.
By March 2013, the value nearly doubled from November 2012, and was triple from it’s value in March of that year.
Now if we zoom out just a little, we can see that the value increased, reached a new plateau, and stayed at the new level :
This makes sense — fewer coins being minted is a PREDICTABLE prolonged condition occurring, so as long as the same amount of fiat money is flowing through the Bitcoin ecosystem, the value of BTC should double and then stabilize near that value after the excitement / bull run / corrections happen.
Exciting, isn’t it?
Rolling forward….
2nd Bitcoin halving date — July 9, 2016
We very similar price action again.
It is important to note the average value here — it has steadily increased over the course of the 4 years after the 2012 halving occurred and we are looking at prices in the 300–800 range. That alone is very significant.
It means while halving may present a predictable opportunity to capture some gains in the short term, it is also only a part of the overall Bitcoin story, many of the biggest bull runs attributable to overall market conditions and available money to flow through the ecosystem.
3rd Bitcoin halving date — May 11, 2020
Once again in 2020, rather predictably, Bitcoin makes a steady climb which doubles it’s value.
This one took a bit longer, about 4 months until the value was 2x and holding.
In 2020 — covid and shutdowns began, this proved to be a wildcard in all markets.
The activity from 2020–2021 was so bizarre — we saw surges in Bitcoin uncorrelated to the most common market movers, and seemingly a result of the extra spending money, extreme low interest, and….. nothing else to do?…. in summary — 2020–2021 was leverage city.
This made the 2020 BTC halving a bit harder to measure because the gains we saw in 2020 and 2021 were of a different order and so many factors contributed to the momentum of those bull runs.
Moving past that…..
4th Bitcoin halving date — April 19, 2024
Some say we are already seen the 2x action, and that it happened when 20k surged back up to 50k before the halving.
I disagree.
I think we are seeing big market movers like the ETF integrations of BTC, and wider adoption of digital currencies, happening right BEFORE the halving.
When halving occurs, if the same market movers are present and the coins being minted drops in half — then I predict :
a sharp increase sometime this year, which will eventually correct itself and level out, but will provide a chance for super quick gains
BTC market value may ascend as high as 100k or so very quickly, and then fall back down to testing its new price level.
BTC will end up with 50k as the new price floor in 2024 before the next 4 years of steady increase moves it to a more steady 100k and beyond.
For all who laugh at that, just take a look at the total BTC price history please…..
Bots / HODL mode
HODL = Hold on for Dear Life.
I have a few trading bots running, which are running a martingale based strategy I explain in further detail in other stories I’ve posted.
How I Earn $6,000/mo from with Semi-Automated Crypto Trading on my Mobile Device
There is no upsell at the end of this blog.
Because these bots can sometimes miss out on massive price spikes, I *might* close out of my bots and hold if I think a massive price spike is starting.
MIGHT.
There are two possibilities after BTC halving based on historical precedent — a massive price spike, or just a prolonged increase over the course of a year, and a new price floor by 2025.
The first possibility, I want to close my bots and hold for the ride.
The second — I’d rather keep my bots running, but perhaps on a wider spread.
What am I waiting for?
I am capturing some awesome price swings right now.
Things keep bobbing between 50k and 53k, so I am running a thinner spread, and doing nicely.
The signal I am waiting for : I am waiting for BTC to cross over $55,000.
When that happens, I will close out, and hold.
No, I am not reading candlesticks.
Maybe I should be, but I’m not there yet.
This decision is purely based on examining price history, and anticipation.
After BTC crosses 55k, I will hold 2 or 3 months. (not the least of which being what happens in USA elections and policy frontier, nationwide)
I anticipate doubling my USDT balance this way.
However, if the market does not have a giant swing, I will still double my balance every 10 months running the bots that I run anyway.
If the market doesn’t erupt, I will open my bot again and keep on doing what I have been — but with a wider spread to try to capture some wild swings that should happen this year.
I think we stand a good shot at massive market increase.
Things seem to be lining up that way.
Always remember this chart:
Thank you for reading!
Until next time….
Onward and Upward Everybody!
-Chris
Automated Income Lifesyle w/ Chris Morton YouTube
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